Revising the Human Development Sequence Theory Using an Agent-Based Approach and Data

Agent-based models and computer simulations are promising tools for studying emergent macrophenomena. We apply an agent-based approach in combination with data analysis to investigate the human development sequence (HDS) theory developed by Ronald Inglehart and Christian Welzel. Although the HDS theory is supportedby correlational evidence, the sequenceof economicgrowth, democracyandemancipation stated by the theory is not entirely consistent with data. We use an agent-based model to make quantitative predictions about several di erent micro-level mechanisms. Comparison to data allows us to identify important inconsistencies between HDS and the data, and propose revised agent-basedmodels that modify the theory. Our results indicate the importance of elites and economic inequality in explaining the data available on democratisation.